This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight card Milwaukee that is going to be the previous UFC on FOX card due to this new ESPN deal. We’re back to having smaller prize pools for this particular occasion but there’s still good money to be won. The most important GPP is a $10 entrance using $15,000 to 1st place. Those big GPPs with a wonderful top trophy are always my favorite contests to chase so I’ll be taking some shots at that. Other than that, I will stick to my 3-entry maximum & solitary entry GPPs. I’ll also be picking up H2Hs through the week and that I will get a fantastic amount of play in games. Here are a Couple of plays I enjoy for Saturday and my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of this week — Kevin Lee ($9,000)
The main event is nearly always the best struggle to enter money games and stacking both fighters out of a 5-round battle usually makes a lot of sense. I think you can stack the most important event here as well, but I think Kevin Lee is the must drama of the two. He is a -335 favorite and -135 ITD so if he wins he’s going to score tremendously and according to Vegas he’s a 77% chance of winning. He also scored 164 DK points in his last fight so not only does he even have a top ground, but he likely has the highest ceiling onto the card too. That is where I will be starting my money lineup weekly.
GPP drama of the week — Jared Gordon ($8,600)
Following weigh-ins we saw a lot of cash come in on Joaquim Silva and this struggle is virtually a PK battle on the betting odds now. Usually when that happens we see the ownership on DraftKings follow suit and the underdog gains ownership because of the value. I believe Gordon’s possession will go down because of that and that is what makes him a good GPP play. Gordon strikes at the highest rate on the card landing 6.68 sig strikes every minute. He lands 3.41 takedowns per 15-minutes. He doesn’t even require a end to score 100+ points and that is the reason why I enjoy him in this place. I am not guaranteeing a win by any means, but when he does win then he must score well.
Underdog drama of this week — Mike Rodriguez ($7,500)
Mike Rodriguez is 1,200 cheaper than Adam Milstead in this matchup, but he’s just +115 in comparison to Milstead’s -135 betting line. I love the value we are getting there, and that I think Rodriguez wins this fight. I really do expect him to become among the most popular underdogs on the card, but it is chalk I am willing to eat. IF Rodriquez does win then it is probably going to be by knockout so not just would he have the win, but he’d score highly too. I believe if he can win this battle then he ends up on the 1st area lineup and he’s my favorite underdog of the week for that reason.
Fade of this week — Drakkar Klose ($9,300)
I’m not fading Klose because I believe he loses, I’m actually picking him to acquire a Unanimous Decision here. I am fading him since he is $9.3k and together with his fighting style I do not see him becoming over 10x that salary. If I’m making 20 lineups this weekend Klose will be in 0 of these. Klose has 3 UFC wins thus far in his career and he’s scored 63, 68, and 74 DK points in those 3 wins. When he scores around this region again in this fight, then pretty much kills your odds in winning a GPP as the other guys in that $9k range probably score higher and likely even over 100-points. That makes Klose my fade of the week.
If you’d like my full-card DraftKings breakdown using analysis on every struggle, my personal strategies & recommendations, and my pick prediction for every fight then it is possible to find that under the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link too. I’m 47-28 to get +169.81un (+$16,981) because May 19th on Premium Plays. I’m also +75.37u the previous 7 weeks!)
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