This weekend we have an early card on Sunday morning (10:30am ET). I really do like these early cards so I will wake up and have a DraftKings perspiration and then go out and revel in the rest of the day when the struggles are over. This Sunday’s card will take place in Hamburg, Germany and there are a lot of fighters producing their UFC debut. Because of this, I think we should have a large edge this week if we place in the job. Most casual players will not be doing research on these names they have not heard and will only be throwing in lineups trying to get lucky and hit a huge score. I’ll be chasing the large $15k top prize in the $8 GPP as well as the Qualifiers. Most of my investment will be in cash games, largely H2Hs, but I’ll be taking numerous shots at those big prizes. Here are a few plays I like this week in Addition to my fade of this week:
Money Game play of the week — Stack (Anthony Smith $8,700 AND Shogun Rua $7,500)
It is a tough card this Sunday and I believe we will see a lot of people making errors in cash games. Whenever I believe I will guarantee a complete 100+ points in a fight, I love to pile it in my money games and lock those points. I think this fight will be a fun one and I highly doubt it goes to the scorecards. I believe we can see numerous knockdowns too which can help, but I think we easily get over 100+ points together with both of these men. Let us let everyone else make the errors and we can lock at a 100+ points and a triumph, and then we just need to locate another 3 wins we’re convinced in.
GPP drama of this week — Manny Bermudez ($9,200)
I believe this matchup was put up to get Bermudez a win. He has quite a slick entry game and if this fight goes to the floor I think he can pick up progress points quickly and locate a submission. Grant has had issues with entry defense in his career and even when he is winning on the feet, he still shoots in for takedowns every struggle. I believe if Manny can not get the takedown himself, Grant will eventually go for it himself and it’ll cost him. I believe we could see a 1st round entry here which should easily get the 10x+ we are searching for in his $9.2k price tag.
Underdog drama of this week — Shogun Rua ($7,500)
If Shogun can win this battle he’ll easily pay off this price . He’s got 100-point upside and with a 7.5k salary that will surely place him on the winning lineup when he can arrive. Anthony Smith continues to be pumped out more instances than Shogun and has fought considerably worse rivalry. I would not be surprised if Shogun is able to acquire a KO here against Smith, who’s carrying this fight on short notice. Shogun has noticeably slowed down in the past couple of years but I think he has enough in the tank to pull off an upset victory here. I do want exposure to both guys in GPPs, but I believe you need some vulnerability to Rua if you’re making numerous lineups.
Fade of this week — Nick Hein ($8,500)
I have a number of fades this week and I am going with a smaller player pool in hopes of my own picks being correct and I can hit the right combo. It’s hard to choose one favourite fade this week but I shall select Nick Hein. I do think Nick Hein will win this fight, and I think he will use takedowns to acquire the decision win here. So, you would think that sounds good on DraftKings because wrestling stands up things. But, he doesn’t chain together takedowns and that he usually ends up with only 1 or two in his UFC wins. He does not have much finishing ability and I really don’t see him getting a entry. However, I believe we will see 2-3 takedowns here and him grinding his way into a Unanimous Decision victory as we have seen from him in the past. Hein includes 4 UFC wins and these are his DraftKings game logs for all those wins: 53 points, 58 points, 65 points, and 71 points. At $8.5k, I’m not interested in having any DK investment on Hein with these scores. That is why he’s my fade of the week.
If you would like my full-card DraftKings breakdown with investigation on every fight, my personal approaches & recommendations, and also my select forecast for every single struggle then it is possible to find that beneath the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker should you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
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